INTRODUCTION TO THE ELLIOTT WAVE SERIES OF ARTICLES

 

By

 

Joseph M. Miller

 

Daan Joubert

 

Marion Butler

 

 

Applying the Elliott Wave principle to the study of civilization allows us to accomplish three important things:

 

1. We can better characterize historical periods of advancing and declining civilization, and achieve new insights into those periods,
2. We can better understand our present economic situation and the risks faced by civilization at this time, and
3. We can predict some likely future political, economic, monetary, and market developments.

 

Over the past three years the authors have published several articles that explain the Elliott Wave Principle, apply it to previous historical periods, and draw some conclusions regarding the future.  The subject matter of these articles developed in somewhat random ways as our understanding of historical periods increased, and as economic and political changes occurred in the present.  Therefore, previous readers have been forced to follow our work in the random fashion in which it evolved.  For new readers, Alternatives for Financial Freedom has allowed us this space to present the material in a more organized way. 

 

This introduction explains what each of the Elliott Wave articles is about (in the order presented at this site rather than the order in which they were written).  It also presents the following table showing all large Elliott Waves from 10000 BC to present, which is not available in any of our previous articles.

 

 

Table 1:  Large Elliott Waves from 10000BC to Present

 

The above table labels the 10,000-year advance from the beginning of the Neolithic to the height of the Roman Empire as Wave Z1, composed of three ascending Y Waves (Z1Y1, Z1Y3, and Z1Y5) each lasting roughly three millennia.  In other words, this 10,000-year economic advance was composed of three distinct 3000-year periods of growth.  During the first growth period (Z1Y1) man learned to domesticate plants and animals; during the second period (Z1Y3) cities were developed; and during the third period (Z1Y5) these cities coalesced into the first nation states and empires.  Therefore we describe Wave Z1 as “Development of Early Civilization.”

 

Each of the three ascending Y Waves (of any Z Wave) is similarly composed of three ascending X Waves (X1, X3, and X5) each lasting roughly a millennium.  That is to say, each 3,000-year economic advance also consists of three distinct periods of growth.  Ascending X Waves are also composed of three stages of growth called Grand Super Cycles.

 

In the Year 2002 we have recently completed the first X Wave of the first Y Wave of a Z Wave.  We label the present Z Wave as Z3, and describe it as “Development of Advanced Civilization”.  Obviously, we have no idea what civilization will look like 9-10,000 years from now, but we are confident that the present Y Wave (Z3Y1) represents only the early stage of development of that advanced civilization.  The most recently completed X wave (Z3Y1X1) therefore represents the preliminary or prototypical developments of the early stage of advanced civilization.

 

That is the good news that the Elliott Wave Principle is giving us.  The bad news is that every long economic advance is followed by a long and painful economic decline, and we have recently begun one of these declines.  These economic declines appear to serve a vital function in long-term human development, because human inventiveness, applied to the problem of overcoming a major decline, sets the stage for the next long advance.  For example, in our view, the key developments of the agriculture revolution and urban revolution occurred because man was forced to adapt to severe challenges to survival.  We realize that this provides small comfort to those of us who must live through such times, but this is how we see it.

 

Our various articles, published from December 1999 through early 2003, examine the stock markets, the economy, and civilization as a whole, in light of the Elliott Wave Principle in greater detail.  These articles are as follows:

 

Our first article, 12,000 Years of Elliott Waves, was published in six parts in December 1999:

 

Part I:  Introduction

Part II: Recent history and the current market bubble

Part III: The current X Wave (1000 to 2000 AD)

Part IV: Elliott Waves over the past 12,000 years

Part V: Potential causes of an X Wave correction starting in the new millennium

Part VI: Appendix.  Introduction to Elliott Wave Theory

 

One critical weakness in 12,000 Years of Elliott Waves was the fact that the authors had limited knowledge of prehistoric periods.  Our 1999 research allowed us to understand that there were 2 distinct Y Waves from the beginning of the Neolithic to the beginning of the Bronze Age, and to understand the causes of Neolithic decline, but we were unable to define the Pre-Bronze Age X Waves or label intermediate declining periods.  Overcoming this weakness in our work took considerable additional research, which resulted in Foundations of Western Civilization published in April 2002.  Foundations of Western Civilization discusses Waves Z1Y1 through Z1Y4 in the above table, and describes the six advancing X Waves of those periods, along with the known information about intermediate declining periods. We thank June Butler and Marcia Stockton for their help in producing the map of the Uruk trade network.

 

The Rise and Fall of Civilizations is a 3-part article published December 2001.  Part I described the risks associated with peak periods of civilization, and typical developments associated with declines following different levels of Elliott Waves.  Part II examined the most recent four X Waves showing extent of advance, and causes and extent of subsequent decline.  Part III provided additional commentary on the historical waves and discussed the present world economy and society in light of previous X Waves.

 

Grand Super Cycle National Bankruptcies is an 8-part series of articles published in the early months of 2003.  It examined national fiscal and monetary problems at the end of the last 6 historical Grand Super Cycles.  The titles are: Part I – Introduction, Part II – Fall of the Athenian Empire, Part III – Fall of the Roman Republic, Part IV – Fall of the Roman Empire, Part V – The Hundred Years War and the Black Death, Part VI – Fall of the French Monarchy, Part VII – The Great Credit Bubble, and Part VIII – Conclusion.

 

In the year following the publishing of 12,000 Years of Elliott Waves, major stock market indices topped out, and have not yet revisited those peaks.  Many market observers began to question how long and deep the correction would be, and we joined this dialogue by publishing A Revisit of 12,000 Years of Elliott Waves and What This Means for the 21^st Century in August 2001.  This article discussed our views in light of stock market developments in 2000 and 2001 and provided some websites giving readers information on conditions that may exacerbate the long period of decline we anticipate.

 

Elliott Waves and Monetary History, published June 2000, examined the history of money as it relates to the Elliott Wave Principle.  Its principle theme is that fiat money (including precursor) systems and credit bubbles tend to be associated with the end of Grand Super Cycles, while sound money tends to be restored near the beginning of Grand Super Cycles.

 

When Gold is King, published February 2002, shows that silver has been the primary money metal except during the final centuries of the previous three X waves, when gold was more important than silver.  For the previous two X Waves, it discusses the connection between the transition from silver to gold and the destruction of the Western monetary system at the time (as described in Elliott Waves and Monetary History.)

 

About The Authors provides some background information regarding the three authors of this series of articles.  We have also provided a Bibliography that applies to the entire series of articles.  

 

You may email the authors with comments and/or questions at the addresses shown below.  Previous articles were often followed by questions from readers regarding Oriental X Waves, or with arguments opposing some of our proposed causes for the present X Wave decline.  We have devoted countless hours answering these emails as well as writing two articles in rebuttal to published critiques of our work. Therefore, it is not our intent to respond further on these subjects beyond commentary here.

 

Oriental Waves

Regarding Oriental X Waves, there is nothing in the Elliott Wave Principle to suggest that Elliott Waves only apply to Western Civilization, and it is our view that X Waves do exist in Oriental history.  We have avoided the subject of Oriental X Waves in our writings for two reasons.  First, none of the authors are well versed in Oriental history, and second, it is fairly clear that whatever Elliott Waves existed for eastern Asia, they were not synchronized with the West.

 

To state one example of the lack of synchronicity, consider the history of the Huns, who originated near China and migrated toward the West over several centuries.  The Huns troubled China long before devastating the West.  Consider also that the immediate cause (the trigger event) of every single X Wave decline (at least) after the Neolithic was assault against the civilized zone by nomads, with the Huns playing the nomad-vs-civilization role in the Fall of Rome.  Therefore, there was an absence of a simultaneous trigger event for decline in East and West at the end of the Roman X Wave (Z1Y5X5) and this was also true of previous X Waves. 

 

Furthermore, one development common to all X Wave declines, starting at least with Neolithic 2, was a collapse of international trade.  Therefore, during an X Wave decline we see an economic collapse in all civilized nations composing the international trade network.  Eastern Asian nations would not be dragged into such a decline unless and until they became an integral part of the trade network.  This condition has only come to pass during the recently completed X Wave (1000 to 2000AD).  The idea is that in the early stages of world development, different parts of the world had different Elliott Wave experiences.  Now that the world has achieved modern communications and worldwide trade, perhaps the entire world has coalesced into a situation where they will have the same Elliott Wave experiences.

 

For anyone interested in researching Oriental Elliott Waves, we would be happy to help you get started, but we are not interested in pursuing this subject ourselves.

 

Possible Causes of Post-Industrial Decline

The authors are not able to see the future.  We do not claim to know the depth or duration of the decline that has recently begun with near certainty, nor do we claim to understand all of the causes of this decline.  Our writings discuss a number of looming threats to the world economy such as oil depletion and global warming, but we only state these as POSSIBLE causes of decline.  On the depth and duration of the decline we can say that if we use history as a guide, we discover that at this time in the Elliott Wave sequence, history is telling us to expect a period of as much as 100 years of decline and a decrease in economic activity of a large amount.  This decline started in the years 2000 and 2001.

 

One fascinating aspect of our work has been the realization by the authors just how emotionally charged some of these topics are.  The mere phrase “oil depletion” or “global warming” creates an ire and upset in some readers that is simply beyond description.  We have received numerous long epistles trying to prove to us that global warming is a discredited idea, that oil depletion is a hoax, etc.  Please do not send these to us.  We have seen them all, we assure you.  If you read our work and come away thinking that we are trying to promote some kind of political or environmental agenda, you have missed the entire point of what we are saying.

 

Joseph M. Miller:          jmiller585@mchsi.com

Daan Joubert:               daanj@kingsley.co.za

Marion Butler:              juneb01@msn.com

 

 

© COPY RIGHT 2003 By Joseph M. Miller, Daan Joubert and Marion Butler, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED