12,000 YEARS OF ELLIOTT WAVES:

 

 

Part 4: Elliott Waves over the past 12000 years

 

Table 2 below shows the full extent of Elliott waves from 10000 BCE. The notes that follow discuss the work that underlies this presentation of history.

 

 

TABLE 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Introduction

 

After the invention of writing c.3000BC we can describe periods of civilization advancing and declining; and generally speaking, declining periods represent transition phases between one advance and the next.  Prior to 3000BC, evidence of decline is scarce at best, but we hypothesize similar descending waves at the major transition points between ascending waves of pre-history, based on the evidence of later periods.

           

The earliest Sumerian literature, the Epic of Gilgamesh written soon after 3000BC, is a semi-legendary account of a Sumerian king of Uruk, who lived a century or two before the epic was written.  The prior destruction of civilization is a central theme of the epic, with tablet X describing a quest for the survivor of the Flood, and tablet XI describing the Flood.  Thus, the earliest human literature lends credence to the hypothesis of pre-historic declines.

           

The ancient Egyptians also believed that civilizations rise and fall, as evidenced by this passage in Socrates’ discourse with Timaeus : “Thereupon one of the (Egyptian) priests , who was of very great age, said, O Solon, Solon, you Hellenes are never anything but children, and there is not an old man among you.

 

Solon in return asked what he meant.

 

I mean to say, he replied, that in mind you are all young; there is no old opinion handed down among you by ancient tradition, nor any science which is hoary with age.  And I will tell you why.  There have been, and will be again, many destructions of mankind arising out of many causes; the greatest have been brought by the action of fire and water, and other lesser ones by innumerable other causes.”

 

Readers may view the outlook of this work as negative or fatalistic, but this is not our intent.  As for the charge of fatalism, history proves that strong individuals can buck the prevailing trend, with examples shown here: Ramses III in Egypt, Tiglath-pileser I in Assyria, and Marcus Aurelius in Rome.  As for the charge of negativity, it should be noted that whether a decline is caused by weaknesses in the preceding advance or by forces external to that advance, the declining period lays the foundation for the next upward wave.  Therefore, these declines appear critically important to human development.

 

One final note about dating.  The abbreviation “c.” (as in c.2000BC) means circa or “roughly”, and dates become rougher and less reliable the farther back we look.  Even in cases where “c.” is omitted, it cannot be assumed that dates are exact.  Different sources give conflicting dates for the reigns of various kings, for example, and there are numerous other dating problems.  Our goal has been to achieve the maximum accuracy possible, given these limitations, but we cannot be certain of the ancient wave counts as presented, only the general pattern. 

 

Z1: c.10000BC to 337AD. 

 

This great ascending wave encompasses the period from the beginning of the Neolithic Revolution to the height of the Roman Empire, a span of some 10,000 years.

 

Z1Y1 to Z1Y3: c.10000BC to c.3500BC.  The Neolithic Age

 

During the Neolithic Revolution mankind began the domestication of plants and animals, enabling the production of sufficient food to allow free time for other pursuits.  Neolithic man developed through two levels, each lasting some three millenia, 1) Incipient Agriculture, and 2) The Village/Farming Community Level, representing waves Z1Y1 and Z1Y3 respectively.

 

Z1Y1: c.10,000BC to c.7000BC.  Incipient Agriculture

 

During this period man developed pottery, weaving, and improved tools, abandoning the flint tools of the Old Stone Age for ground stone tools.  Domesticated dog bones have been found from c.8700BC.

 

 

Z1Y2: c.7000BC to 6800BC.  Intermediate Decline

 

We hypothesize a period of decline between the two levels of the Neolithic, based on evidence of decline at the later transition points.  Based on the length of declines of later X and Y waves, we judge that Z1Y2 must have lasted at least two to three centuries.  Because human progress in Z1Y1 was slow and modest, the depth of the decline may also have been modest, leaving little or no evidence in the archaeological record.

 

The Wave Principle suggests, furthermore, that Z1Y1 and Z1Y3, preceding and following Z1Y2, were composed of lesser waves (X waves, grand super cycles (GSCs), and super cycles (SCs).  It is impossible for us to identify these smaller waves and their associated declines, but we do understand the causes of decline during the Neolithic.  This is because the agricultural revolution brought a number of risks with it, including:

 

1)       Degradation of the soil.  Overgrazing and failure to rotate crops caused many of the earliest settled areas to become desolate regions even to this day.  Much of the world’s deserts are man-made.

2)       Disease.  Increasing human populations in closer proximity brought the risk of epidemic.

3)       Famine.  Man became dependant on weather.  Crops were also at risk from insects and other animals.

4)       Pollution.  Towns developed long before sanitation.

5)       Loss of freedom.  Freedom of movement was lost in the transition from nomadic to sedentary life.

6)       Security problems.  Sedentary life creates wealth, which in turn creates security risks.  The development of town walls testifies to this threat, particularly from nomadic groups on the fringes of civilization.  This was a primary cause of the Bronze Age declines, and persisted as a threat at least through the Mongol conquests in the 13^th century AD.

7)       Class strife.  Sedentary life creates economic classes.  This can lead to oppression of the lower classes by the elites (evidenced in Gilgamesh) and uprisings by the lower classes against the elites.

 

Z1Y3: c.6800BC to c.3500BC.  Village/Farming Community Level

           

Farming villages appeared first in the Fertile Crescent, then in Egypt c.5000BC.  Fertile Crescent phases are as follows:

 

1)       Jarmo Phase (Iraq) by c.6750BC.  Cultural exchanges existed over hundreds of miles.  Man was domesticating wheat, barley, pea, sheep, cattle, goats, pigs, and horses.

2)       Hassunan Phase, to c.4800BC.  Advanced architecture, larger villages, improved and more aesthetic pottery.

3)       Halafian Phase.  Round “tholos” style houses, possible copper metallurgy.

4)       Eriduan Phase.  Recognizable temple made of mudbrick.

5)       Ubaidian Phase.  Before c.4000BC.  Threshold of urban life.  Town-sized sites.  Temples display some monumentality.

 

Z1Y4: c.3500 to c.3200BC.  Chalcolithic

 

This transition between the Neolithic and Bronze Ages was a period of incipient copper use, for decorations, tools, and weapons.  Reference materials show an extremely wide range of dates for the Chalcolithic, because a handful of metal objects date from well before 3500BC.  We have defined this period narrowly, corresponding to the Two Kingdoms period in Egypt.

 

1)       Sumeria (c.3200BC):  Jemdat Nasr Period.  A mildly declining archaeological period prior to the reign of Gilgamesh that is associated with the Flood legend.

2)       Egypt (c.3500BC-c.3200BC):  Upper and Lower Egypt were frequently at war with each other.

3)       Anatolia (c.3500BC-3200BC):  Sites from this period are more fortified than previously and were often destroyed by violence (eg. Mersin and Hacilar).

 

Z1Y5: c.3200BC to 337AD.  Bronze and Iron Ages

 

Man learned to make bronze by mixing tin with copper, launching civilization to new heights.  Iron was discovered by the Hittites in the latter years of their empire and maintained as a closely guarded secret.  With the disintegration of the Hittites c.1200BC, the use of iron spread to other countries, coinciding with the advent of a long dark age.

           

Z1Y5X1: c.3200BC to c.2300BC.   Early Bronze Age

 

1)       Sumeria (c.3200BC-2325BC):  While the emergence of Sumer can be traced to c.4000BC or before, Bronze Age Sumeria ran from c.3200BC to 2325BC.  Sumeria reached the peak of its power under the reign of Lugalzaggasi 2350BC to 2325BC, bordering the Mediterranean Sea and Persian Gulf.

2)       Egypt (c.3200BC-2281BC):  Dynasties I-VI (Proto Dynastic and Old Kingdom Periods).  Menes, the first true historical figure, founded the first dynasty by uniting Upper and Lower Egypt c.3200BC.  This period reached its peak during Dynasty VI, with trading , exploratory, and military expeditions well beyond Egypt’s borders.  This superficial greatness masked great underlying stresses, however, due primarily to high taxation and over-centralization of power.

3)       Anatolia (c.3200BC-c.2100BC): Local areas were consolidated under the rule of kings.  Troy levels I and II date from this period.  Troy II was a powerful fortress during the majority of the early Bronze Age.  It rests upon the ruins of a lesser settlement that may date from the late Chalcolithic.

 

Z1Y5X2: c.2300BC to c.2000BC.  Intermediate Bronze Age

 

1)       Sumeria (2325BC-c.2000BC):  Sumeria was conquered at the height of its power in 2325BC by Sargon of Akkad.  The Sumerians temporarily reasserted themselves c.2100BC during a period of turmoil throughout Mesopotamia.  Descending Elliott waves exhibit an A (down) B (up) C (down) pattern, and the reassertion of the Sumerians c.2100BC may represent the B wave of X2 for them.  The Sumerians ceased to exist as a distinct people c.2000BC.

2)       Egypt (2281BC-2050BC):  Dynasties VII-X (First Intermediate Period).  Discontent and a spirit of rebellion at the end of wave X1 led to destruction of the old order.  Dynasty VII, which opened this period, was an oligarchy of 70 men who ruled for a mere 70 days.  Wave X2 is characterized by banditry and internecine warfare, foreign invasion and temporary occupation of the Delta, plunder of burial sites and decline of religion, and a major transfer of wealth, impoverishing many nobles and enriching some commoners.  Not surprisingly, the writing of this period expresses a longing for the better days of the bygone era.

3)       Anatolia (c.2100BC-c.1900BC):  Dates are particularly hazy here.  Many of the early Bronze Age towns were looted and destroyed by 2000BC, including Troy II.  Troy levels III-V, associated with this period, had smaller walls than Troy II.  Small houses were confined within narrow lanes.

 

Z1Y5X3: c.2000BC to c.1200BC.  Middle and Late Bronze Ages

 

1)       S. Mesopotamia (c.2000BC-c.1200BC):  The First Babylonian Empire was founded c.2000BC, containing many cultural elements of the earlier Sumerians.  It existed until c.1200BC.

2)       N. Mesopotamia (c.2000BC-c.1200BC):  The emergence of Assyria dates from c.3000BC, but the period of their military development was from c.2000BC to c.1200BC.  (Assyrians invented the sword in this period.)

3)       Egypt (2050BC-1167BC):  Dynasties XI-XIX (ended 1200BC).  After a period of revival and another decline, Egypt achieved the height of its power under the reign of Thutmosis III 1491BC-1449BC.  The last great pharoah was Ramses III 1198BC-1167BC, the second pharoah of Dynasty XX.

4)       E. Anatolia (c.2000BC-c.1200BC):  The Hittites existed as a people from c.2000BC to c.1200BC.  They developed in three phases, allowing us to describe their grand super cycles roughly as GSC1&2) Early Hittites c.2000BC-c.1700BC, GSC3&4) Hittite Kingdom c.1700BC-c.1430BC, and GSC5) Hittite Empire c.1430BC-c.1200BC.

5)       W. Anatolia (c.1900BC-1200BC):  Troy VI, founded c.1900BC, had walls 16 feet thick, with several gates and towers.  Buildings were pretentious with numerous pillars and columns still in evidence.  Destroyed by earthquake c.1300BC, it was rebuilt as Troy VIIa, which is considered the Troy of Homer’s Iliad.

6)       Greece (c.1900BC-c.1200BC):  Achaean invaders conquered Greece c.1900BC, establishing their principle city at Mycenae.  They were conquered in turn by invading Dorians between 1200BC and 1100BC.

7)       Crete (c.1950BC-c.1200BC):  Middle and Late Minoan.  The earliest inhabitants of Crete date from c.3000BC, with Bronze Age villages dating from c.2500BC.  A sudden urbanization c.1950BC (probably brought by Semitic peoples) began the Middle Minoan period , which is considered the start of true Minoan civilization.  Initially Minoan Crete held sovereignty or influence over the Achaean Greeks, and a joint culture developed between the two.  Control passed to Greek hands c.1400BC (destruction of Knossos) and Homer relates that King Idumeneus of Crete fought under King Agamemnon of Mycenae at Troy (c.1200BC).

8)       Italy:  c.2000BC the ancestors of the Latins brought the Bronze Age to the peninsula.

 

Z1Y5X4: c.1200BC to 700BC.  Early Iron Age - The First Dark Age

           

The advent of the Iron Age coincided with collapse of the Bronze Age civilizations.

 

Z1Y5X4A: c.1200BC to 1028BC.  Early Dark Age - Destruction of the Bronze Age Cultures

 

1)       S. Mesopotamia:  The First Babylonian Empire was destroyed by the Hittites and/or Assyrians c.1200BC.

2)       N. Mesopotamia:  Assyrian power declined from c.1230BC to 1116BC.  Under the leadership of Tiglath-pileser I (1116BC-1093BC) Assyria became the dominant state in the Middle East.  Decline continued starting around 1050BC as a migratory wave of nomads swept the region.

3)       Egypt:  Invasion by Peoples of the Sea c.1200BC at the start of Dynasty XX.  Ramses III (1198BC-1167BC) repelled the invasion, as well as threats from the Philistines and Libyans.  This was a temporary respite, as Egypt began a long decline after Ramses’ death.

4)       E. Anatolia:  The Hittites were destroyed c.1200BC by invasion of Peoples of the Sea from the Aegean, and attacks from the mountainous Gashga tribes.

5)       W. Anatolia:  Troy VIIa was destroyed by fire c.1200BC. 

6)       Greece:  Achaean culture destroyed by invading Dorians c.1200BC.  Athens alone survived.  Mycenae was reoccupied by Achaeans, but destroyed by 1100BC.

 

Z1Y5X4B: 1028BC to 933BC.   Israel - The Reigns of Saul, David, and Solomon

           

A corrective wave such as X4, massive both in depth and duration, should evidence a discernable upward wave B in its center; and it is exactly at this point that the Bible describes the wealth and glory of Solomon’s reign in Israel (I Kings, Chapter 10).  

 

Z1Y5X4C: 933BC to 700BC.  Dark Age Continues

 

1)       Mesopotamia:  Assyria experienced a resurgence under Ashurnasirpal II and Shalmaneser II (883BC-824BC), followed by continued decline under weak successors.  As this period was drawing to a close, Assyria reached the height of its power under Tiglath-pileser III (745BC-727BC).  The Fall of Assyria was 612BC.

2)       Egypt: Decline continued during this period.  Conquered by Ethiopia c.730BC.

3)       Greece: Early formation of the states that later comprised Classical Greece.

 

Z1Y5X5: 700BC to 337AD.  The Roman X Wave - from the founding of Rome to Constantine

           

Around 700BC, mankind resumed its upward march.  Carthage was founded in the 8^th century; and as mentioned above, Assyria reached its peak in the decades leading up to 700BC.  The emergence of the Medes was near the beginning of this X wave; and Persian history from Cyrus (559BC-530BC) to Xenophon’s Anabasis/revolt of Cyrus the Younger (401BC-400BC) completes the first grand super cycle (GSC1) of X5.  The New Babylonian Empire (612BC to 538BC) had its existence entirely within GSC1, representing the third super cycle (SC3) of that grand super cycle.  Spartan history from Lycurgus (c.700BC) through the Peloponnesian War (ended 404BC) corresponds with GSC1, and this grand super cycle also corresponds with Athenian history from the end of monarchy in 683BC to the end of the Peloponnesian War.  The period of Olympic Games 776BC-393AD corresponds roughly with X5.

           

A critical phase of monetary history, the development of coinage, also corresponds with GSC1 of X5.  The first royal mint was established in Lydia c.700BC producing the first crude coins made of electrum, a natural alloy of gold and silver.  By the end of GSC1, coinage dominated Mediterranean commerce, having reached the peak of engraving and artistic quality.  During GSC1, annual world silver production was about 1.5 million ounces, with 2/3 coming from the Laurium mines near Athens.

 

From the standpoint of monetary history, GSC1 ended in 407BC, during the Peloponnesian War.  Sparta captured Laurium and freed 20,000 slaves there, thus severing Athens from her money supply.  Athens responded by issuing silver-plated bronze coinage (406BC-405BC) and the populace began hoarding silver, the first known application of Gresham’s Law.

 

Because Roman history serves as the precursor to European history, we will follow the wave patterns after 700BC through Rome.  We have used DuPuy & DuPuy, The Encyclopedia of Military History (p.12) as the authority on the founding date of the city, as opposed to the more traditional date of 753BC.  Better histories are available for this X wave, allowing us to identify the super cycles and grand super cycles that compose it.

 

GSC1: 700BC to 396BC.  Rome becomes the leading city in central Italy

 

SC1 (700BC-c.600BC):  Century of warfare with Etruscan neighbors.

 

SC2 (c.600BC):  Defeat by the Etruscans.

 

SC3 (c.600BC-509BC):  Prosperity under the Tarquins (Etruscan Kings).

 

SC4 (509BC-496BC):  Revolt.  Establishment of the Roman Republic in 509.  Struggles with relatives of the Tarquins attempting to regain the throne.

 

SC5 (496BC-396BC):  Expansion of Rome.  Rome became the leading city in central Italy with the destruction of the Veii in 396BC

 

GSC2: 396BC to 390BC.  The sack of Rome 

 

In 390BC Rome was sacked by the Gauls, who occupied the city for months.  The Gauls failed to capture the citadel, which housed the Roman treasury, because the cackle of geese warned the Romans of impending attack.  In gratitude, a shrine was dedicated to Juno Moneta, goddess of warning, and from this event we get the words “mint” and “money”. 

 

GSC3: 390BC to 135BC.  Rome becomes a world power

 

Rome continued its growth in three phases with many setbacks and near disasters along the way, 1) the consolidation of Latium by 343BC, 2) The consolidation of Italy by 265BC, and 3) the achievement of world power status by 146BC.

 

SC1 (390BC-343BC): Consolidation of Latium.  Establishment of a Latin confederacy.

 

SC2 (343BC-338BC): Uprising of Latin allies in the Latin War 340BC-338BC. 

 

SC3 (338BC-265BC): Consolidation of Italy was completed with the conquest of Rhegium in 270BC, and defeat of a Samnite uprising soon afterward.

 

SC4 (265BC-242BC): Early defeats in the First Punic War (Carthage).  By 249BC Rome had suffered four major disasters at sea losing over 200,000 men and 700 warships to storms alone.  With the fleet rebuilt in 242BC, Carthage was defeated in 241BC.  This victory provided Rome with her first province overseas, in western Sicily (at the start of SC5).

 

SC5 (241BC-135BC): Rome becomes a world power.  With the defeats of  Macedonia, Greece (Achaean War) and Carthage (Third Punic War), all in 146BC, Rome became mistress of the Mediterranean world.

 

GSC4: 135BC to 30BC.  Fall of the Roman Republic

           

Just as Rome achieved world power status she was ripped apart by internal disorders and class warfare.  This chaotic period includes the First Servile War 135BC-132BC, assassination of the democratic tribune Tiberius Gracchus in 133BC, Revolt of Fregellae (Roman allies) 124BC, Second Servile War 104BC-99BC, the Social War 91BC-88BC, Roman Civil War (Marius/democrats vs Sulla/aristocrats) 88BC-82BC, Third Servile War (Spartacus) 73BC-71BC, the insurrection of Cataline during Cicero’s consulship 63BC, the Great Roman Civil War (Caesar/democrats vs Pompey /aristocrats 50BC-44BC, Wars of the Second Triumvirate (following Caesar’s assassination) 43BC-34BC, assassination of Cicero by agents of the Second Triumvirate, and the War of Octavian Against Anthony 33BC-30BC, all of which led to the fall of the republic.

 

GSC5: 30BC to 337AD.  The Roman Empire through Constantine

           

The Pax Romana period 30BC-162AD comprises the first 3 super cycles of GSC5.  The Julian Dynasty and the chaos following Nero’s death comprise SC1 and SC2.

 

SC1 (30BC-54AD): Early Pax Romana, from Augustus to Claudius.  This super cycle also corresponds to the gold standard established by Augustus. 

 

SC2 (54AD-69AD). Nero (54-68AD) plus the Year of Four Emperors (69AD).  Nero is known for his persecution of Christians, and for the burning of Rome as part of his city planning scheme.  He also ended the gold standard of Augustus, reducing the weight and fineness of silver coinage, and the weight of gold coinage.

 

SC3 (69AD-162AD): Later Pax Romana, from Vespasian to the beginning of the Eastern War.

 

SC4 (162AD-268AD): Decline of Empire.  Marcus Aurelius (161AD-180AD) was the best and last of the five “good” emperors of the Pax Romana.  With his death in 180AD, the empire was clearly in decline, but the Pax Romana is considered to end in 162AD, since Marcus spent virtually his entire reign fending off external threats to the empire. 

 

SC5 (268AD-337AD):  Revival under the Illyrian Emperors through Constantine.

 

Z2: 337AD to 1000AD.  Correction Wave for Z1

 

Interpreting this wave is crucial to understanding 1999 from an Elliott Wave standpoint.  From 1000 to 1999 civilization has advanced for a millenium, and it is fairly easy to define this as an X-wave composed of 5 grand super cycle waves.  But is the current X-wave the first X-wave of the current Y-wave, or could it be the third or fifth X-wave?

           

A key to answering this question lies in the length and severity of the decline that preceded 1000.  This decline continued for seven centuries, which is too long to represent the correction of the Roman X Wave, a mere 1000-year advance.  This must be the correction of a higher order wave, either Y or Z.  Our interpretation, looking at all of the advances and declines of mankind, is that this wave corrected the entire 10,000 years that preceded it.  Therefore, we judge the present X-wave (1000-1999) as the first X-wave of the first Y-wave of Z3.

 

Z2A: 337AD to 476AD.  Fall of the Western Empire

           

After Constantine the decline of empire continued until the abdication of Romulus Augustus, the last emperor, in 476.  By 366 Roman money was so debased that the government refused to accept its own coinage in payment of taxes.  The city of Rome was sacked by the Vandals in 455, and by 476 the western empire was no more than a pitiful shell.  This A wave corrected the entire Roman X Wave (Z1Y5X5).

 

Z2B: 476AD to 800AD.  Early European History to Charlemagne

           

This period marked the early development of European states culminating in the crowning of Charlemagne as Holy Roman Emperor in 800.  At the height of the B wave, as we would expect, there is some faint semblance of the former glory of Rome.  Charlemage played a role for Christendom in Z2B similar to Solomon’s role for the ancient world in Z1Y5X4B, providing a brief moment of glory in the midst of an otherwise bleak age.  The Vikings began raiding Europe in 809, near the end of Charlemagne’s reign (771-814).

 

Z2C: 800AD to 1000AD.  The Dark Ages

           

The Encyclopaedia of Military History (p.243) says this about the period: “This, the darkest period of the Middle Ages, was characterized by aimless and anarchic strife.”  This final horrible decline corrected not only X5 (Roman history), but the prior X and Y waves of Z1 as well.

 

Z3: 1000AD to c.11000AD.  Present Z Wave

           

“The farther back one looks, the farther in the future one may see,” Winston Churchill.

 

Z3Y1: 1000AD to c.4000AD.  Present Y Wave.

 

Z3Y1X1: 1000AD to c.2000AD.  Present X Wave: Modern Man

 

Description of this period is contained in Parts 2 and 3.  Additional notes follow.

 

GSC1: 1000AD to 1350AD.  Late Middle Ages

           

Coalescence of European states, particularly England and France.  Rise of the Italian maritime powers: Venice, Genoa, and Pisa.  Because the Renaissance (GSC3) began in Italy, we will follow the Italian wave patterns in GSC1.

 

SC1 (1000-1096): Venice dominated the Adriatic after defeat of Dalmatian pirates in 1000 and capture of Bari from the Moslems 1002.  Pisa and Genoa drove the Moslems from Sardinia 1005-1016.

 

SC2 (1097-1102): Venice lost the Dalmatian coast during a war with Hungary.

 

SC3 (1102-1170): Pisa at the height of its power in the 1100s.

 

SC4 (1171-1196): Venetian setbacks.  Defeated in war with Byzantium 1171.  Failed efforts to retake Dalmatia 1172-1196.

 

SC5 (1197-1359): Commercial rivalry of Genoa and Venice.  The Republic of Florence issued the gold florin in 1252, the first European gold coin since the fall of Rome.  Genoese nobles overthrown 1359 and replaced with an elected Doge.

 

GSC2: 1350AD to 1400AD.  The Black Death (Bubonic and Pneumonic Plague)

           

Southern Europe was stricken in 1347, with Western Europe stricken in 1348 and Northern Europe stricken in 1349.  By the end of 1350 two thirds of all Europeans had contracted the plague with a mortality rate of 50%, resulting in 25 million deaths.  Europe was struck by succeeding waves every few years through 1398, with declining mortality rates in each wave.  Local outbreaks continued into the 1700s.  The epidemic was a disaster economically in the latter half of the 14^th century as inflation raged and commerce ground to a near halt during the acute labor shortage.  During this period there were mass mental aberrations, agrarian revolts, a moral decline, and a reduced level of education.

 

GSC3: 1400AD to 1720AD.  Renaissance

 

SC1 (1400-1479): Early Renaissance

 

SC2 (1479-1495): Setbacks for the Italian states

1)       Venice: declined following defeat by the Turks and loss of territory in 1479.

2)       Naples: French invasion 1494-1495.

3)       Rome: Reign of Pope Alexander VI 1492-1495.  His son, Caesar Borgia, wrecked the power of the wealthy families of Rome.

4)       Pisa: Failed to regain independence from Florence.

 

SC3 (1491-1588): The Spanish Century, from the unification of Spain under Ferdinand and Isabella (conquest of Granada) in 1491 to the Spanish Armada in 1588.  Colonization of the New World.  The Colombian (cultural) Exchange.  Spanish dominance of Europe.

 

SC4 (1588-1618):  Spanish power went into decline after the Armada.  Banking crisis/bank failures in northern Italy in the late 1500s.

 

SC5 (1619-1720):  The Century of Fiat Credit.  Venice established a state bank, Banco della Piazzo del Rialto, in response to the Italian banking crisis. Venice then invented fiat credit in 1619 by creating another bank, Banco del Giro, with credit against the state rather than a deposit of specie.  The Bank of England was established 1693 near the end of the super cycle.  Holland’s Tulipmania was during this super cycle, and the South Sea Bubble and Mississippi Scheme brought the period to a close.

 

GSC4: 1720AD to 1780AD.  South Sea and Mississippi Bubbles Burst

           

The dates chosen for GSC4 correspond to the bear market in England following the collapse of the South Sea Bubble in 1720.  In France, the collapse of the Mississippi Scheme the same year led to great financial distress.  By the reign of Louis XVI (1774-1791), the worsening financial crisis and a succession of finance ministers culminated in the calling of the States-General in 1789 to address the problem.  We consider the French Revolution, beginning with the calling of the States-General, to be the start of GSC5 in France.

 

GSC5: 1780AD to c.2000AD.  Industrial and Electronic Revolutions

           

In England, GSC5 commenced in 1780, and this grand super cycle represents American history from 1776 to present. 

 

(C) 1999 By The Authors

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